000 AXNT20 KNHC 170551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 117 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 33N60W TO 35N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM NE OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N64W ALONG 26N60W TO 32N57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N41W ALONG 10N44W TO 6N44W MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-13N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W 12N33W TO 11N41W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N46W ALONG 9N50W TO 11N54W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N58W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 56W BETWEEN 8N-15N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N18W TO 11N24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-16W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 17W-29W...AND FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR NE CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 26N86W TO 28N91W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT TO OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER S FLORIDA S OF THE FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SE TEXAS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR MEXICO CITY ALONG 20N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-87W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH OVER NW SOUTH CAROLINA. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO 83W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-86W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N E OF 67W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-83W. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER N-NE. RESULTANT SWELLS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSAGES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE EVENING REACHING 76W BY SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE RAFAEL E OF BERMUDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR NE CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 17/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N69W TO 30N73W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 28N76W THEN TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG 27N55W TO BEYOND 32N53W AND E OF THE HURRICANE RAFAEL. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W ALONG 27N33W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N41W INTO THE TROPICS TO THE BASE NEAR 5N51W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 32N73W TO WEST PALM BEACH BY SAT AND FROM 32N70W TO WEST PALM BEACH BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW