000 AXNT20 KNHC 150555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 65.1W AT 15/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 615 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 19N62W TO 21N62W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N65W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N61W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N40W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N27W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS TO 7N36W THEN RESUMES SW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO 8N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE...FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 30W-41W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N51W TO 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS W OF 86W EXTENDING FROM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN TO NEAR 17N86W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 86W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 81W-83W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N83W TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE N GULF LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO BY FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N83W TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 11N80W THEN ACROSS S NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. RAFAEL WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE N AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH SWELL FROM RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MON THROUGH TUE AND DIMINISHING ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL N-NE OF PUERTO RICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 26N76W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND MELBOURNE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AND THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N29W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N38W TO THE BASE NEAR 12N46W IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-34W INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 21N48W. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N37W. RAFAEL WILL INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH MON MORNING ABOUT 275 NM N OF PUERTO RICO REACHING ABOUT 285 NM S OF BERMUDA BY TUE MORNING AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NE OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW ATLC TUE THROUGH WED DISSIPATING THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW