000 AXNT20 KNHC 141154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 63.8W AT 14/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 87 NM NNW OF SAINT MARTIN OR ABOUT 773 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-27N BETWEEN 58W-66W...AND FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 53W-68W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N35W TO 19N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AS IT COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W. LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N23W TO 09N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 10N35W TO 07N46W TO 08N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 20W-39W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N96W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N82W TO 13N89W. NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 12N84W TO 21N77W. MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA...THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND JAMAICA...AND AN AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST FROM 10N-16N. FINALLY...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED E-NE OF PUERTO RICO AND LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N60W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROVIDING AMPLE DIFFLUENCE AND SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW FOR THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS OCCURRING WITH RAFAEL THIS MORNING FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 60W-64W. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK N-NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W SW TO 25N81W TO 22N82W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N AND W OF 79W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA USHERED IN BY BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N75W TO 26N76W AND IS PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 74W-80W. SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS FROM 13N-28N BETWEEN 53W-67W. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND BEGIN A GRADUAL N TO NE TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF RAFAEL ANALYZED FROM 32N55W TO 29N66W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 55W-69W. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 22N36W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 34W-40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN