000 AXNT20 KNHC 111156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...FROM 18N53W TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW AT 10N55W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 44W-58W. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY AND BRIEFLY PERSIST BEFORE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD SLOWLY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N15W TO 7N20W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N23W TO 2N40W TO 3N44W TO N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AT 38N85W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...S GULF S OF 22N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 80W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 74W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 72W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SIMILAR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 60W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA