000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9.5N ALONG THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N54W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 58W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE WARMING. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE AREA OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W AND 5N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W TO 5N28W 4N35W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU... ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE U.S.A...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY...REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AFTER THE COLD FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 21N97W 23N90W 26N82W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N24W TO 28N32W 27N50W... TO A 15N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N73W...TO A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N77W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE...CONSISTING OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 27N26W 24N34W 23N46W 22N55W...CURVING TO 21N57W THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS BEEN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSES THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N/11N...THROUGH 11N80W...AND THROUGH AND BEYOND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W AT 10/0845 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND THEN IT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG NOW IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN PANAMA AND TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 24N TO 32N. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N ALONG THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W. PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT STARTS ALONG 53W...MOVES TO 56W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO 60W AT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT