000 AXNT20 KNHC 101201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N52W TO 9N53W TO 5N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN 50W-55W. AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 9N53W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 13 KNOTS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N20W TO 4N25W TO 7N43W TO 11N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 20W-33W...AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 80W-89W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AT 8N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO THE LOW TO 24N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 71W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N42W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 30W-50W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 24W-30W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 50W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA