000 AXNT20 KNHC 091750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... FOR THE PURPOSES OF CONSIDERING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 TO 17 KNOTS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 9N23W 7N30W TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE 45W/46W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 45W/46W TROPICAL WAVE...TO NORTHERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA AND ITS BORDER WITH SURINAME THAT IS NEAR 5N ALONG 54W/55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A...REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...CURVING TO 23N95W AND 20N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 25N81W 23N88W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 25N39W 25N40W AND 23N50W. THIS TROUGH IS COMING INTO PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 23N50W TO THE 21N55W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK...AS THAT CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY WITH TIME. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 20N67W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 14N58W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE 33N33W TO 25N40W PART OF THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT DURING THE LAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE FRONT NO LONGER IS PART OF THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE...CONSISTING OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 27N30W 24N40W 22N51W 19N55W 18N59W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 76W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS BEEN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSES THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...IN THE AREA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER...TO 11N80W... WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS INCLUDED IN THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS OF 08/1200 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COSTA RICA/ NICARAGUA BORDER TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 83W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 23N TO 31N. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 28N71W 22N73W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 09N45W AT THE START...NEAR 1010 MB 11N54W AT 24 HOURS... AND LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATED AT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 55W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N AT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT