000 AXNT20 KNHC 071124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N29W ALONG 13N30W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N29W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 29W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HAITI NEAR 18N71W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N85W TO 12N82W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 13N18W 9N23W THROUGH THE 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE THEN TO 7N41W. THE ITCZ IS AGAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN FROM 7N41W ALONG 8N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 27W-32W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA... AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER NEW ENGLAND NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 28N90W 28N94W TO ACROSS S TEXAS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF NE MEXICO. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N87W AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N89W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 20N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS SUN NIGHT THEN FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICAN COAST MON NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER S HAITI NEAR 18N73W AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-77W. THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 65W LEAVING THE S CARIBBEAN WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 19N72W ALONG 20N79W TO 21N83W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 66W-78W. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 82W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N72W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 32N67W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-74W. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N69W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 52W-63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N57W TO 19N61W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 54W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 53W-57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W CONTINUING TO 25N35W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N43W TO 25N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 1008 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WSW AND DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN TIP OF CUBA LATE TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW