000 AXNT20 KNHC 070539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N28W ALONG 12N29W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 9N28W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HAITI NEAR 18N69W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N84W TO 11N80W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W 1N22W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE THEN 9N36W TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY NOT DISCERNIBLE IN THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 31W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 17W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER NEW ENGLAND NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 07/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO 29N91W THEN NW TO A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST JUST S OF GALVESTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N87W AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF 95W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS KEEPING THE N GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY SUN AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO LATE MON WHERE IT STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI/GULF OF GONAVE NEAR 19N73W AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-77W. THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W LEAVING THE S CARIBBEAN WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 69W-77W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 62W-75W. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 81W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR BOCA RATON FLORIDA TO 31N72W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 28N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1007 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N67W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 52W-63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO 18N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W CONTINUING ALONG 26N32W 23N42W TO 23N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N54W 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 1007 MB LOW WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE SW ATLC THROUGH SUN THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW