000 AXNT20 KNHC 061152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N24W TO 11N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING TRINIDAD. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N75W TO 9N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N21W CONTINUING ALONG 14N35W TO 11N44W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY NOT DISCERNIBLE IN THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-21W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 27W-38W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI ALONG 26N93W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUING TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING ALONG 84W FROM 26N-29N WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N94W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA AND TO THE COAST OF CUBA AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N96W ALONG 22N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS LOCATED OVER W GEORGIA AND SE NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SW GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER REGION THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST. FRONT WILL REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY SUN AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY MON WHERE IT STALLS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N71W ALONG 19N78W TO 22N82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF S HAITI AND N JAMAICA. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N AND N OF 15N W OF 81W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH TROPICAL WAVES AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 82W-85W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON THEN THE W CARIBBEAN TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 25N80W TO 30N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 53W-66W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N56W THROUGH A NEWLY FORMED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 20N59W TO 18N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 26N62W 23N65W TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N66W TO 26N71W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W CONTINUING ALONG 25N39W 24N47W TO 26N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR...EXTENDING FROM 27N29W TO 21N35W. BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N TO BEYOND 32N E OF THE FRONT TO 22W AS REPORTED BY METEO FRANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 40W WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N29W TO BEYOND 32N25W. THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AND MOVE W TO OVER THE BAHAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT IN WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 1009 MB LOW CURRENTLY NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SAT INTO SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW