000 AXNT20 KNHC 060606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 16N22W TO 9N19W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N62W TO 10N63W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N73W TO 9N75W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA IN TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W ALONG 12N31W TO 10N41W WHERE THE ITCZ EXTENDS TO 8N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 42W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING ALONG 83W FROM 24N-29N WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF FROM 23N94W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SW OF LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO 25N95W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...CUBA....AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-96W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER 1018 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY SUN THEN WILL STALL FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-82W. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N AND N OF 15N W OF 81W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N ACROSS THE BASIN AND W OF 83W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HAITI HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE S COAST AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON THEN THE W CARIBBEAN TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FAR W ATLC FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 78W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 54W-65W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 26N62W 24N65W TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N54W ALONG 20N53W TO 22N59W... WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 23N-26N...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-50W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N31W CONTINUING ALONG 24N44W TO 27N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR...EXTENDS FROM 27N32W TO 22N35W. BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N TO BEYOND 32N E OF THE FRONT TO 22W AS REPORTED BY METEO FRANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N31W TO BEYOND 32N27W. SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AND MOVE W TO OVER THE BAHAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT IN WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW