000 AXNT20 KNHC 051131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 23.0N 38.9W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 9N TO 20N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM OSCAR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N54W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...AND FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 20N68W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N54W..AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...AND BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N25W 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N48W AND 11N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. THIS FEATURE IS QUITE PROMINENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 29N91W 22N98W UNDER THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 24N90W...CURVING TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM MEXICO TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 20N68W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N54W..AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...AND BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 83W/84W ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N65W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO 25N68W AND 21N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS 24N54W TO THE CENTER...AND THEN TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...ISOLATED STRONG ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N41W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 34W AND 65W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 16N32W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR....AND FOR A GALE WARNING FOR A COLD FRONT 31N39W 29N52W 31N63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT