000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR 22.0N 40.2W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N57W 12N58W 8N59W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM OSCAR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N59W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N52W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N68W TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N59W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N52W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N65W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N65W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N59W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W TO 10N30W 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W TO 7N40W AND 12N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N10W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. THIS FEATURE IS QUITE PROMINENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 29N91W 23N98W UNDER THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 24N90W...CURVING TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 25N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N68W TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N59W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N52W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N65W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N65W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N59W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 25N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND IN WEST CENTRAL COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ERUPTED IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 8.5N SPREADING FROM COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND LAKE MARACAIBO...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N80W PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N68W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N52W 24N62W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N56W CENTER TO 27N50W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N43W, THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N25W AND 16N30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR....A GALE WARNING FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 31N39W 28N47W...AND FOR A COLD FRONT 31N42W 29N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT