000 AXNT20 KNHC 041754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANTS OF NADINE AT 04/1500 UTC IS NEAR 40.0N 26.7W ABOUT 74 NM NNE OF LAJES AZORES MOVING NNE AT 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. 34 KT WINDS EXTEND 150 NM NE AND 160 NM SE OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE JUST EAST OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE CENTER FROM 37N-40N BETWEEN 23W-26W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 04/1500 UTC IS NEAR 20.6N 41.7W ABOUT 1047 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NNE AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. OSCAR HAS 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR. CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 10N66W MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO 9N25W TO 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N32W TO 6N40W TO 11N54W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-28W...FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 30W-41W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO 24N90W TO SOUTH MEXICO AT 18N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 91W-94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 82W-90W. FURTHER W... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N101W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO AT 21N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE CENTER ...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE... HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE E GULF DUE TO CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 85W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 81W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-70W MOSTLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N80W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. NADINE IS EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. T.S. OSCAR IS NOW MOVING NNE AT 8 KT. SEE ABOVE. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N13W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N60W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 53W-57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA