000 AXNT20 KNHC 041143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR 39.0N 27.2W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW IN THE AZORES. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. NADINE IS ABOUT 225 NM TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 37N27W 24N29W 33N31W 32N33W...POSSIBLY MOSTLY WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED DIRECTLY ONLY TO NADINE. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.0N 42.5W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 40.5W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N64W IN VENEZUELA TO 17N58W TO 24N55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 15N20W 10N24W 7N30W 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 10N44W 12N50W AND 12N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 9.5N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N103W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WEAKENED...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BEYOND 21N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SAME LINE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N88W ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA BORDER...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... BEYOND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N64W IN VENEZUELA TO 17N58W TO 24N55W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 18N73W IN HAITI TO 14N79W AND 14N83W AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA... AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N TO 11N IN SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS AND IN COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N68W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N52W 24N62W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N56W CENTER TO 27N50W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N25W AND 16N30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO 31N38W 27N50W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO 25N35W 24N50W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 24N66W AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT MOVES TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 24N67W AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT