000 AXNT20 KNHC 031741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR 35.2N 32.5W. NADINE IS ABOUT 313 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING E AT 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.3N 41.5W ABOUT 1008 NM TO THE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N57W TO 8N59W TO 9N52W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 17N16W TO 15N18W TO 9N21W TO 5N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N28W TO 7N34W TO 14N30W. AN ITCZ IS ALSO SW OF T.D. FIFTEEN EXTENDING FROM 14N43W TO 12N45W TO 12N50W 8N55W TO 9N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-78W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-67W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N76W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 75W-78W DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF SURFACE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. T.S. NADINE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N20W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N56W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 50W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA