000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 02/0600 UTC IS NEAR 34.5N 38.5W. NADINE IS ABOUT 595 NM/1100 KM TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 34N TO 36N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N32W 14N35W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N36W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N30W 17N34W 13N37W 10N40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... THE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N46W 14N50W 9N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W 11N18W 13N29W 9N40W 9N48W AND 7N53W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. 24 HOURS AGO HAS SLOWED DOWN AND STALLED. IT PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 20N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 86W/87W... TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO 21N99W. BROKEN STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO 20N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N87W...SQUEEZED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 80W AND 91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ACROSS HONDURAS AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...LINGERING RAINSHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 02/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 1.39 INCHES. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 18N54W AND 13N59W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...AND THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 15N80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 18N70W TO 11N62W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 02/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.85 OF AN INCH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 18.5N TO 22.5N IN CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA AND IN CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL CUBA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO AND WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N74.5W IN COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS PRECIPITATION THAT IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL A RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF MOIST SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALSO IS WITHIN 360 TO 420 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N54W AND 13N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A TROPICAL WAVE AND THEN A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1009 MB NEAR 15N38W AT 24 HOURS...AND 1010 MB NEAR 18N41.5W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 43W AT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT