000 AXNT20 KNHC 011108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 01/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N 39.3W. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM/55 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 NM/205 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W 10N25W 11N29W 9N32W 7N48W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 12W AND FROM 10N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.... AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AT THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE COAST NEAR 20N TO 26N100W IN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 95W FROM 18N IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20N... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N86W 28N87W 24N90W 20N94W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N87W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 24N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA...BETWEEN 80W AND 95W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N48W 19N51W TO 12N56W TO 8N60W ALONG THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL AND 80W. THE EARLIER STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN JAMAICA HAS ENDED AND NOW IT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...10N81W... BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 5N. MANY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE WARMED. SOME CELLS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF 5N IN COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 67W FROM 20N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE BAHAMAS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N48W 19N51W TO 12N56W TO 8N60W ALONG THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 01/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.80 OF AN INCH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT