000 AXNT20 KNHC 302340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE NADINE IS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 39.2W AT 30/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 582 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM OF THE CENTER OVER ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 35N-40N BETWEEN 36W-42W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 32N33W ALONG 36N32W TO 39N36W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N25W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S CALE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W TO 12N29W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 10N44W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W ALONG 15N22W THEN DIPS SHARPLY S TO THE 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W CONTINUING W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUING W ALONG 7N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 260 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 29W-37W AND WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT NARROWS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT CROSSES E TEXAS/ W LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 999 MB LOW AT 30/2100 UTC OVER E/CENTRAL LOUISIANA EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 25N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN CONTINUING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF NEAR WHITE LAKE LOUISIANA TO 27N96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO BEYOND GEORGIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MON NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WED AND THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N84W TO 19N85W TO 17N85W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 80W CENTERED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HAITI PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N78W ALONG 18N77W TO OVER CUBA BEYOND 20N77W INCLUDING E CUBA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA N OF 16N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA... AND HONDURAS E OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN/PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA ALONG 9N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-74W AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AND WED NIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NW HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W EXTENDING AN AXIS NW OVER THE SE CONUS AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS TO BEYOND 32N63W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W-80W AND FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 23N50W TO 16N54W IN THE TROPICS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N57W TO 22N58W AND FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 45W-48W. HURRICANE NADINE REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGES WITH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING S FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES TO 27N26W. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT W THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC LATE TUE NIGHT THEN REACH FROM NEAR 32N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW