000 AXNT20 KNHC 281153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 28/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 34.1W. NADINE IS ABOUT 647 NM/1195 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF NADINE AS FAR AS 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. THIS WAVE CROSSES A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W 9N19W 10N35W 9N42W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF AN UPPER LEVEL 32N47W 19N49W 11N56W TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW CROSSES 90W AND THEN IT MERGES INTO THE FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 88W. THE REMAINS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS COASTAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N57W...TOWARD HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA TO 13N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. A 78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...8N78W AND THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8.5N79W AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 19N49W 11N56W. ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH CURVES FROM 19N49W TOWARD HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N31W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT