000 AXNT20 KNHC 280630 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE SPECIAL FEATURE INFORMATION ABOUT T.S. NADINE...AND IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 28/0300 UTC IS NEAR 28.8N 33.6W. NADINE IS ABOUT 645 NM/1190 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF NADINE AS FAR AS 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... AND WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W 13N33W 8N34W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W...CROSSING JAMAICA TO 16N78W AND 11N78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THIS WAVE CROSSES A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W 9N20W 8N28W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N35W TO 6N45W 7N49W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 9N12W 8N17W 5N23W 5N34W 8N41W 10N45W...ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW CROSSES 90W AND THEN IT MERGES INTO THE FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 87W. THE REMAINS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...COVERING THE BAHAMAS FROM ANDROS ISLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 16N57W...TOWARD HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA TO 13N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS... COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N83W...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS FROM 19N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N70W OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI NEAR 19N73W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N81W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N50W 20N51W 18N54W...TO 16N57W AND WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT