000 AXNT20 KNHC 241131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE DATA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS VALID THROUGH 1015 ONLY TO THE EAST OF 75W. NO IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE AT THIS MOMENT TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER 23/2100 UTC. SATELLITE DATA FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNAVAILABLE FROM 23/2100 UTC UNTIL 24/0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 31.4N 26.9W. NADINE IS ABOUT 420 NM/780 KM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND 100 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE WAS CHANGED AND MOVED MORE EASTWARD BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 14N20W 10N25W AND 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 6N39W AND 6N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N73W...TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N86W TO 28N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ULTIMATELY WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AT 23/1200 UTC HAS BEEN BREAKING UP SINCE THAT MOMENT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND 90W. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT 24/0000 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 27N TO 32N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N74W TO 23N79W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE DATA LIMIT THE RECEPTION OF IMAGES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W AFTER 23/2130 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W WITH THE TROUGHS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N65W. THIS IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT MOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 DAYS OR SO. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO PASSED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND SAINT VINCENT AROUND 21/1800 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SATELLITE DATA ARE AVAILABLE TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM NADINE...TO 27N30W 22N36W 17N42W 11N43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE AREA OF THE TROUGH AND IT INCLUDES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 21N63W...JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND EVENTUALLY TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN 48 HOURS. A SECOND FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT