000 AXNT20 KNHC 231159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE AT 23/0600 UTC IS A 987 MB GALE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30.6N 25.9W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 23W-27W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 4 TO 9 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N52W TO 9N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W TO INCLUDE OVER BARBADOS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 21N93W THROUGH S MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 10N94W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 90W-97W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SW GULF. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 18N16W TO 10N25W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 8N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 26N81W TO 20N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 25N HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 75W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 62W S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... POST-TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA