000 AXNT20 KNHC 221105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 18N42W TO 11N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 44W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N87W TO GUATEMALA AT 16N89W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN... YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 83W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO 7N25W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO 8N40W TO 9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FURTHER W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W AND N OF 22N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 70W-76W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... POST-TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N27W AT 22/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 356 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING SSE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAIN AT STORM FORCE WITH 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 26W-28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N78W TO 23N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 76W-80W N OF 23N. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N70W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 51W-54W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA