000 AXNT20 KNHC 162351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 39.1W 16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING E AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 34W-41W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N29W TO 6N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 16N59W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AXIS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 13N56W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 56W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 9N14W TO 8N30W. A SHORT ITCZ IS BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 8N39W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N96W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 22N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 91W-96W. EXPECT THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NE TO 28N93W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-26N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AT 29N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA ...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 83W-93W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-86W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N73W INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N60W TO 24N64W TO 22N70W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N57W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA