000 AXNT20 KNHC 131807 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 13/1500 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 52.2W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NADINE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 122 NM/225 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS OCCURRING AROUND TROPICAL STORM NADINE AND A 30N60W 20N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 9N21W TO 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N40W TO 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N13W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W FROM THE TEXAS TO ITS GULF COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W...WITH THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ALONG 24N INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N79W ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS WAS 0.28 INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER MEXICO AND THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. THESE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N62W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N64W...TOWARD THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 75W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 68W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS COLOMBIA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE 0.45 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N62W TO 25N62W...TO A 20N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W. THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W TO 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N66W 24N72W 24N78W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 37N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N28W TO 31N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 42W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND TO 24N21W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N44W TO 23N34W AND 18N27W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 63W FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF 31N AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT