000 AXNT20 KNHC 111748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 49.4N 55.6N AT 11/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 113 NM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY S OF THE CENTER OVER NEWFOUNDLAND N OF 43W BETWEEN 52W-62W. TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 39.2N 47.2W 11/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 947 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 37N-41N BETWEEN 45W-49W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 43.1W 11/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 1051 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 3714N-20N BETWEEN 44W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ITCZ IS SW OF T.D. FOURTEEN FROM 10N51W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT 10N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO AN EMBEDDED 1016 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF AT 27N95W TO 24N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N TO E TEXAS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 61W-66W MOVING W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 26N68W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 25N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 74W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. T.S. MICHAEL AND T.S. LESLIE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL N OF 32N. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 312N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR ARE OVER OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-28N E OF 37W BASED ON THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND THE SEVIRI RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA