000 AXNT20 KNHC 110558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 48.0W AT 11/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1021 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING NNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 33N46W TO 35N48W. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 43.8N 56.8N AT 11/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 42N55W TO 47N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 43N-50W BETWEEN 55W-62W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 23N40W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 36W-45W. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 16N22W 17N29W 15N35W THROUGH THE 1008 MB NEAR 15N41W TO 12N49W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N55W TO 10N60W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 18N51W TO 15N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE U.S. TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 26N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO S FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF AS STATIONARY FRONT NEAR NAPLES CONTINUING W ALONG 26N90W TO NEAR 23N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE THEN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S EARLY WED DISSIPATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND KEYS WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WED THROUGH THU THEN WEAKENING FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MICHAEL AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE N OF 32N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE U.S. SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 27N71W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W ALONG 27N45W TO A 1017 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N69W. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-27N E OF 38W. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N61W TO S FLORIDA TUE MORNING FROM 32N58W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THU THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N AND NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW