000 AXNT20 KNHC 102352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 47.6W AT 10/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1020 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 47W-48W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 45W-49W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 41.1N 58.5W AT 11/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 405 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 27 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 40N-44N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE LOW ATTACHED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL ORGANIZED. THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N40W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 23N38W. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED...CONVECTION HAS NOT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 40W-43W...AND FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 35W-37W. IF CONVECTION INCREASES NEAR THE CENTER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. EITHER WAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW AT 15-20 KT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 19N16W WHERE IT CONTINUES ACROSS ATLC WATERS TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 16N40W AND THEN TO NEAR 10N50W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 10N50W AND ENDS NEAR 10N63W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR EITHER THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ BESIDES THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 26N89W 22N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S...AND 100 NM N OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE BOTH EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE SE GULF AROUND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN CUBA. SOME STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE FAR SW GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BE GONE BY 72 HOURS IN THE BASIN. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE AXIS. CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE HAS CHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS IS THE RESULT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING UP CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING PRODUCE LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN BOTH THE FAR EASTERN AND FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N68W ALONG 27N74W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS OVER FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC ALONG 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N71W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTING A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS SPIN NEAR 17N55W AND 29N50W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 53W-58W. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO 14N43W. IT SUPPORTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE AXIS. THE LOW TO THE EAST OF IT IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW/WAVE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS OF THE WAVE/LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N31W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY ALONG WITH GOES-R ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. THE DUST EXTENDS TO ABOUT 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON