000 AXNT20 KNHC 101150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 45.2W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 925 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 42W-46W. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.5N 60.8N AT 10/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 700 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF LESLIE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 32N58W TO 36N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-41W BETWEEN 57W-65W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 23N33W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE/LOW ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 36W-40W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W CONTINUING ALONG 15N24W 14N30W THROUGH THE 1008 MB NEAR 11N40W TO 9N51W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO 13N39W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 32W-36W AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 56W-64W INCLUDING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND GRENADA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US E OF 100W DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING W ALONG 27N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS N TO NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 95W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 21N93W TO 20N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE E PORTION WILL DRIFT S REACHING S FLORIDA TO 27N90W BY EARLY WED BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WED THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 81W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL AFFECT TROPICAL ATLC PASSAGES AND WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MICHAEL AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE N OF 32N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S. W OF 73W DIPPING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W EXTENDING TO 28N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N58W ALONG 27N55W TO 32N54W BEING DRAWN INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N30W ALONG 28N39W TO A 1017 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N70W. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-27N E OF 32W. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 32N69W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING E FROM 32N61W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TUE AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT SLOWLY S WEAKENING FROM 32N60W TO NEAR MIAMI WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW