000 AXNT20 KNHC 080031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.4N 41.3W AT 07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM NW OF THE AZORES MOVING NW AT 03 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 40W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 40W-43W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 62.2W AT 08/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 58W-63W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N16W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 15N17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER INDICATING THE WAVES PRESENCE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 15W-21W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE LOW ATTACHED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 15N17W CONTINUING TO A SECOND 1012 MB SURFACE LOW AT 17N29W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 11N43W CONTINUING ALONG 11N53W 9N61W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 29W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY DRY AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SW ALONG 26N91W TO 25N93W...AS OF 2100 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-93W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY ON THE NE SIDE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE NW CORNER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND LINGER IN THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF BEFORE BEGIN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GUATEMALA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR W ATLC CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH AT 33N71W TO A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AT 25N78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS BESIDES THE AREA OF SHOWERS ALREADY MENTIONED. TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE SPINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF WINDS...SEAS...AND CONVECTION. MUCH SMALLER...BUT STRONGER...HURRICANE MICHAEL SPINS NE OF LESLIE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB AZORES HIGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND SOUTH CENTRAL ATLC SOUTH OF THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON