000 AXNT20 KNHC 071741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 41.1W AT 07/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NW AT 03 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-43W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 62.2W AT 07/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 340 NM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 58W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 20N17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N16W AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE W AFRICA COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AT A MINIMUM A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATING SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF 14N22W. THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF IS HIGHLY EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO A 1014 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 16N28W TO 10N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 06N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 28W-32W LOCATED NORTH OF THE MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 16N28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N99W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N89W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTERED TO 25N92W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 24N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SE GULF...THEN WESTWARD ALONG 23N TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N72W TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A BASE NEAR 17N87W. MOSTLY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THIS TROUGHING AS GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF 80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 13N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADEWINDS. NE TO E WINDS ARE HOWEVER A BIT STRONGER...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT...PER AN EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL. THE E TO SE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FROM 32N72W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N70W TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 75W-79W. FARTHER EAST...THE RATHER LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE REMAINS N OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-68W. SE OF LESLIE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N33W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N43W. FINALLY...AS HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADS FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 37W-44W...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 33N14W AND 36N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN