000 AXNT20 KNHC 021756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 46.2N 36.5W AT 02/1500 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM NW OF THE AZORES. KIRK IS MOVING NE AT 32 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 44N-47N BETWEEN 35W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 61.1W AT 02/1500 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LESLIE IS MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS SYSTEM INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE LOW BECAME EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS SHARED THE SAME SCENARIO...AS SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED NO SURFACE TURNING...OTHER THAN THE TURNING ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N26W TO 13N30W BASED ON CONTINUITY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG 16N24W 10N34W TO 6N45W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA AROUND 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W..AND FROM 12N-17N E OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING DRYER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF BASIN...AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N87W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE SE AND N-CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES S OF 14N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS REGION...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS SRN PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE FLOW OVER FAR ENE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GRENADA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES IS CENTERED A FEW MILES E OF THE NW BAHAMAS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO 28N74W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRIVEN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NW BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK NW STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N53W... GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N38W...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1017 MB LOW REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N39W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED WITHIN 50 NM AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA..COMBINED WITH DRY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA