000 AXNT20 KNHC 020543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 41.2N 41.8W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 585 NM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 710 NM WNW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-42N BETWEEN 41W-44W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 58.4W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N28W TO 19N25W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N28W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ELONGATED NE TO SW IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 21W-41W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N E OF 35W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 13N28W TO 07N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N41W TO 06N45W TO 07N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N100W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO 34N81W THAT REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N87W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W...AND FROM S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-94W. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES AT 02/0316 UTC AND 01/2310 UTC RESPECTIVELY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN ALONG 27N/28N WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PERSISTING. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES S OF 14N W OF 72W...INCLUDING WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG A LINE FROM 10N79W TO 13N86W. WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...LIGHT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THAT SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE GRENADINES. TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W WITH CONFIRMATION BY A 02/0134 UTC ASCAT AND 01/2306 UTC WINDSAT PASS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W SOUTHWEST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N73W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO 30N67W TO 27N72W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N79W PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE TO E WINDS. FARTHER EAST...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK NW STEERED BY A BREAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-75W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 45W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N45W. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 30N54W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 47W-51W. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N38W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 37W-42W...WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N-31N ALONG 36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN