000 AXNT20 KNHC 312341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK AT 31/2100 UTC WAS NEAR 32.2N 50.2W MOVING NORTH AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1 /WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 49W-51W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 31/2100 UTC WAS NEAR 16.7N 51.0W MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 50W-53W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 19N19W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 15N21W. THE SURFACE LOW WAS IDENTIFIED IN A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE IS RATHER LARGE AND CONTINUES BOTH WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND EAST TO AFRICA MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE EXACT AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW MOVING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND SPLITTING AT THE COAST DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC. IT CONTINUES FROM A LOW CENTER ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 15N21W CONTINUING ALONG 10N25W 9N32W. BESIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER GEORGIA AND TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA OVER ATLC WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW GULF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO BOTH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH AND A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THAT UPPER TROUGH AND A SECOND BROADER ONE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING TROUGH NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS HELPING PROVIDE THOSE FAIR CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N61W TO 11N64W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N65W TO 28N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND 175 NM SE OF THE AXIS AND 90 NM NW OF THE AXIS. STRONG DRY AIR ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGING ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH. HURRICANE KIRK AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N40W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE TO E OF KIRK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE EAST NEAR 31N33W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 29W-38W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA. GOES-R ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC CONTINUING TO ABOUT 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON