000 AXNT20 KNHC 310622 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 CORRECTION TO WIND/WAVE INFORMATION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR 33.5N 93.0W...ABOUT 85 MILES/135 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT IN LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 95 MILES/150 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK IN ARKANSAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ...30 MPH. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWARD 10 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 50.7W. MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N57N TO THE WEST OF 50W...EXCEPT FOR THE HURRICANE KIRK MOISTURE. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR 14N.7N 46.8W. LESLIE IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W AND FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INCLUDED IN THE 31/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISTINCT AFTER THAT...TO THE EAST OF T.S. LESLIE...BEING DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 31/0015 UTC...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8.5N TO 11 BETWEEN 13.5W AND 15W IN COASTAL GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN THE MEXICO BORDER WITH THE GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...TO 24N84W 24N90W...TO 25N94W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CUBA-TO-NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD...AND NOW IT IS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 90 TO 100 NM TO THE EAST OF EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 75W BEYOND CUBA ALONG 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 11N85W IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA-TO-CUBA LINE. THREE CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE...NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...AND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N60W 12N61W 10N61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLOMBIA-TO-CUBA LINE THAT IS RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W TO A 21N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N28W AND 6N31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W... JUST TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 32N36W TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 45W...TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE KIRK. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W...TO THE WEST OF HURRICANE KIRK. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE KIRK...AND ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT