000 AXNT20 KNHC 302357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 32.7N 92.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF MONROE LOUISIANA...OR ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSE OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. ISAAC IS MOVING NNW AT 8 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4 /WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES STILL EXIST. ALL RESIDENTS IN LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...AND SURROUNDING STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR UPDATES ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 MI OF THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 MI OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE KIRK AT 30/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 50.3W. KIRK IS MOVING NNW AT 11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 49W-52W. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 30/2100 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 45.3W. LESLIE IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 19N16W CONTINUING SW TO 10N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. ISAAC IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER N LOUISIANA HOWEVER RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING NW. THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN CONTRAST HAVE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF TOMORROW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 81W-92W. A MONSOON TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE KIRK...AND T.S. LESLIE ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N32W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 28W-36W. A STRONG OUTBREAK OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON GOES-R IMAGERY AND METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT FROM 10N-28N E OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA