000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC AT 29/0600 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 90.0W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 51 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 61 NM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE. FLOODING FROM RAINFALL ALSO IS EXPECTED. ISAAC IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 27.5N TO 31N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. THIS MEANS THAT RAINFALL IS REACHING INLAND BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BORDER WITH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ALL RESIDENTS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO ALL BULLETINS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR UPDATES ABOUT HURRICANE ISAAC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK AT 29/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 45.0W. KIRK IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 48W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N26W 16N29W... TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE INCLUDED IN THE 29/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20N26W 12N30W TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISTINCT TO THE EAST OF THE 20N26W 12N30W TROPICAL WAVE...AS IT HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EVENTUALLY IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 13N55W 10N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W IN COASTAL AFRICA...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE ISAAC IS MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE. FLOODING FROM RAINFALL ALSO IS EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT THIS CYCLONE. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA...AND IT REACHES CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE OUTFLOW MOVES EASTWARD COVERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MADE UP OF THE CLOSED ISOBARS THAT SURROUND ISAAC. THESE ISOBARS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE ISAAC. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N75W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF JAMAICA...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA. THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IS IN THE GULF OF URABA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...ORIGINALLY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AFFECTING BARBADOS POSSIBLY DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-GULF OF URABA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68 AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES T.S. KIRK. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N63W. THIS AREA GOES FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM KIRK. A SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE... AT 24 HOURS NEAR 13N36W...AND 1009 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 14N42W IN 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT