000 AXNT20 KNHC 260601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 26/0600 UTC IS NEAR 22.9N 78.0W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF CANAGUA CUBA AND ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. ISAAC IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE RAIN IMPACTS OF ISAAC SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALL THE WAY INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N W OF 70W...ALSO INCLUDING THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND TURKS AND CAICOS. A 1008 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N33W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE MONSOON GYRE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 20N16W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 18N25W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1008 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N33W AND ALONG 9N40W TO 8N46W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 8N53W TO NEAR THE COAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AT 10N60W. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SEVERAL OUTER BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAVE MADE THEIR WAY IN ACROSS THE ERN GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES THE ACTIVITY EXTENDS S OF 25N E OF 84W. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE ERN GULF E OF 86W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ISAAC ENTERS THE BASIN AND GAINS STRENGTH TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE STATUS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND ERN TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE AND N-CENTRAL BASINS ESPECIALLY HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF ERN CUBA...WHERE LATEST REPORTS FROM THIS COUNTRY INDICATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO NEAR 5 INCHES IN THE LAST 3 HOURS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ISLAND. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION AS RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77W THROUGH A WEAK LOW AT 19N80W TO 19N85W. DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORM CONTINUES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE THE ONLY AREAS STILL UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N W OF 70W...ALSO INCLUDING THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND TURKS AND CAICOS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW-CIRRUS FROM ISAAC COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST ATLC. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN ATLC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N61W AND SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N56W TO 21N56W WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF ITS AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W. THE FAIR WEATHER IS ENHANCED ALOFT BY SAHARAN DUST NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND GOES-R ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY. EMBEDDED IN THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT...AN UPPER LOW WOBBLES NEAR 32N20W. EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WRN ATLC AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA