000 AXNT20 KNHC 230604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N 63.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 17 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 230 NM/425 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W INCLUDING IN TRINIDAD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.8N 39.5W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N39.5W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 10N TO 19N...JUST EMERGING OFF AFRICA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AS IT WAS MOVING ACROSS AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 71W/72W AT 22/1800 UTC HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 23/0000 UTC. WE JUST ARE NOT ABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF IT ANYMORE. A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ARE INDISTINCT AT THIS MOMENT. THEY HAVE BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE T.S. ISAAC AND T.D. TEN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N83W IN FLORIDA TO 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 28N92W AND 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 95W/96W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 31N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N75W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 13N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 32N72W 22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT T.S. ISAAC. A SECOND AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W 29N75W 26N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 29N22W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 29N22W TO 28N32W AND 28N46W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N46W TO 20N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N43W TO 14N42W...STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF T.D. TEN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 37N16W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N23W...TO 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N48W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT T.D. TEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT