000 AXNT20 KNHC 161801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 33.3N 53.8W...OR ABOUT 560 NM E OF BERMUDA...AND 1330 NM W OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING NE AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS INDICATING THE WAVES PRESENCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N55W TO 8N47W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN TILTED. THIS TILT CAN BE SEEN IN THE MOISTURE FIELD IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND IS UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE...WHICH IS HELPING LEAD TO THE TILT. DUE TO THE DRY AIR...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AS OF 1200 UTC. THE WAVE...WHICH BROKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING TO THE N...NOW T.S. GORDON...LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY DURING THE BREAK. IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT WAS LEFT OF THE WAVE THAT HAD BEEN ANALYZED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NOW DISSIPATED. TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN...IS MOVING W AT 10 KT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N92W TO 18N92W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE RANGING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 16N16W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N40W TO 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 12W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED OVER THE NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE CONUS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW GULF NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CORNER EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A SHARP AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 16N81W TO 12N76W. DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N64W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 71W-78W...AND FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 64W-68W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N48W SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N45W. NW OF THE HIGH CENTER IS TROPICAL STORM GORDON. GORDON IS OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC AS WELL PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND BOTH TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLC. THE DRY AIR MASS IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON