000
AXNT20 KNHC 121033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N32W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 
20N34W TO 15N34W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED 
IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 34W-36W. 

TROPICAL WAVE...PREVIOUSLY T.D. SEVEN...EXTENDS FROM 19N61W 
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS 
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM 
OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 18N INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES... 
TRINIDADA AND TOBAGO. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 14N27W 10N35W TO 10N41W WHERE THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES ALONG 8N51W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N E 
OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF OVER 
MOBILE ALABAMA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N95W CONTINUING TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE CIUDAD DEL CARMEN AND SUPPORTING A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL 
GEORGIA...S ALABAMA TO SE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC IS 
GIVING THE E GULF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 
87W TO OVER CUBA/S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 
24N W OF 93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS 
S FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA/YUCATAN AND 
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 22N. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N80W CROSSING 
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
FROM 9N77W OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE E 
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON 
AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N78W EXTENDING 
A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N70W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 24N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 52W-60W AND FROM 22N-26N 
BETWEEN 60W-66W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N32W AND A 1022 
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 36N63W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME 
ORIENTED ALONG 28N BY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW