000 AXNT20 KNHC 120554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N30W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 20N31W TO 17N32W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 32W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE...PREVIOUSLY T.D. SEVEN...EXTENDS FROM 18N58W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 57W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...TRINIDADA AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 12N21W THEN RESUMES S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16N32W ALONG 12N35W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY NOT IN THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-18N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF OVER MISSISSIPPI TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N95W CONTINUING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE CIUDAD DEL CARMEN AND SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING THROUGH NE GEORGIA TO E/CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE E GULF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N88W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR APALACHEE BAY...OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W TO OVER CUBA/S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 12N W OF 77W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W CROSSING PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N71W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO BEYOND 32N72W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO 26N75W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 23N57W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N31W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 35N64W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N70W WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE N BAHAMAS THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 28N BY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW