000 AXNT20 KNHC 100002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 95.8W...AS OF 0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 80 NM W OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO...AND 65 NM SSE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL EARLIER TODAY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER LAND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF MEXICO FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 94W-99W...AND INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 96W-99W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 91W-100W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMED AT 2100 UTC CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 43.8W...OR ABOUT 1005 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 17 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 45W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 42W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 16W AND IS ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N16W. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS VERY CLEAR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N63W TO 20N67W MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. THIS OPEN WAVE IS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. FLORENCE THAT DISSIPATED SEVERAL DAYS AGO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NE OF THE WAVE WITH THE TAIL AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE WAVE IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 60W-63W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W FROM 13N-22N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 19N79W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IT IS HARD TO DIFFERENTIATE WHAT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND WITH THE UPPER LOW. REGARDLESS OF THE CAUSE...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-80W...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THESE AREAS COVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA THROUGH A TROPICAL WAVE/LOW STILL OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W WHERE IT CONTINUES OVER WATER ALONG 13N25W 14N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS ON THE W SIDE OF T.D. SEVEN ALONG 11N45W 9N52W 10N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WIND AND RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERNESTO NEAR 24N97W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MOSTLY OVER LOUISIANA. SOME LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT ERNESTO TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE SE GULF AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 19N79W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE LOW KEEPING THE NW CARIBBEAN MOSTLY DRY. THE E SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO COINCIDES WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N49W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N50W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 48W-53W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE SW IS HELPING SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 58W-68W NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36N63W TO 20N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS MOSTLY DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N48W...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC AROUND T.D. SEVEN SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON