000 AXNT20 KNHC 091747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 09/1800 UTC IS NEAR 18.2N 94.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 5 NM TO THE NORTH OF COATZACOALCOS IN MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO AND OFF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N43.5W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N59W 23N61W 20N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N. THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA... IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N19W AND 15N37W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 41W/42W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 100W. THE FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING 27N93W...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 90W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-INTO- THE CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES THE FLORIDA COAST THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND ERNESTO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND 93W IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 2.59 INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 14N84W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO 16N86W IN NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS...TO 20N89W IN THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO THE 19N79W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N. THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA... IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...TO 11N86W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET BETWEEN 67W AND 77W INCLUDING 30 KT WINDS ALONG 17N OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N79W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO THE 19N79W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/78W FROM 22N TO 12N. THE WAVE STARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF CUBA... IT CROSSES JAMAICA...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD...CROSSING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N/25N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN TO JUST THE WAVE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N54W 23N57W AND 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 35N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE IS ALSO NEAR THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N75W TO 31N78W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...WHOSE BASE REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 29N80W BEYOND 32N75W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N28W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 30N30W AND 31N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N48W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 32N48W HIGH CENTER TO 32N62W 28N72W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 18N25W BEYOND 18N17W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N46W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N49W 24N33W BEYOND 23N16W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO 20N62W 26N59W TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD RELATED TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 14N41W AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT