000 AXNT20 KNHC 081804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 08/1800 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N 90.9W. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE OTHER LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 96W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13.6N IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 41W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUCH THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N53W 22N54W 16N55W. A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N... FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CONNECTED TO A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN VENEZUELA AND NEARBY WATERS AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 76W IS RELATED MORE TO THE TROUGH OF THE 21N72W CYCLONIC CENTER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 15N26W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 35W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GUINEA COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN LAND AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF MEXICO NEAR 22N102W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 96W/97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 30N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND T.S. ERNESTO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 95W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT ERNESTO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 86W. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER... COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W... TO 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN EASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO ERNESTO IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 AND 10 FEET BETWEEN 67W AND 82W...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N75W BEYOND 30N80W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 15N70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 07/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS 2.93 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N63W 27N66W 23N71W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 18N25W BEYOND 18N17W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N46W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N49W 24N33W BEYOND 23N16W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FLORENCE. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD RELATED TO A 13N43W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT