000 AXNT20 KNHC 051205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 76.0W AT 05/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 187 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 417 NM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 71W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 34.2W AT 05/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N52W TO 15N49W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS BETWEEN 42W-58W. HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...A MAXIMUM OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-53W. ALSO 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALONG 50W. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HOWEVER ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AND LIKELY INFLUENCING TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INSTEAD. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 11N21W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N36W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 10N51W TO 06N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 14W-22W... AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N43W TO 13N50W TO 11N54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N88W AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 21N97W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA BAY. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 84W. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD IMPACTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-96W. GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ALONG 28N. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS WEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N66W AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W IMPACTING HISPANIOLA... AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 74W-79W IMPACTING JAMAICA. EXAMINING EXPERIMENTAL RAINFALL MODEL DATA...OPEN WATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. AS ERNESTO SKIRTS SOUTH OF JAMAICA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS VERY DRY AIR FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO AND MODIFIES THIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC MENTIONED ABOVE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N82W TO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W. THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-32N W OF 76W...AND MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF ERNESTO GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-76W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 25N55W TO 28N72W. THIS LARGELY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-65W WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 49W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 30W-39W. 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