000 AXNT20 KNHC 041227 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 UPDATED FOR UPGRADING T.D. SIX TO T.S. FLORENCE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 600 NM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGER AREA S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ABC ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS INTENSIFIED AND IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 04/1200 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14.6N 29.7W. FLORENCE IS ABOUT 530 KM TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. FLORENCE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 14 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE BULLETIN... MIATCUAT1...FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 13N41W TO 8N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N38W TO 11N45W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN OFF WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AND DOES NOT ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC OFF AFRICA BUT BEGINS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX NEAR 12N33W ALONG 10N38W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 6N50W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N29W TO 5N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS AND IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N85W. THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE E SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT SLOWLY N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND OVER NE FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF TODAY THROUGH MON. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-81W AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 17N W OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE WNW REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE SUN NIGHT THEN WILL ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND TO INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA W OF JACKSONVILLE TO OFFSHORE NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING S INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 32N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING ALL OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W ALONG 26N59W TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N66W TO BEYOND 33N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 31N48W TO 26N59W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N61W TO 26N64W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND ESPECIALLY DENSE N OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N THROUGH MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW