000 AXNT20 KNHC 040606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 65.6W AT 04/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 275 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 690 NM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REACH EVEN FARTHER S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 58W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/0300 UTC. T.D. SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 27.8W OR ABOUT 210 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 26W-30W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 14N40W TO 8N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N37W TO 11N43W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N17W EXTENDING TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W AND RESUMES W OF T.D. SIX NEAR 12N31W THEN ALONG 12N35W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 6N45W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 28N-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N84W. THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N85W TO 25N90W AND INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE S TEXAS COAST. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT N TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH E OF FLORIDA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL TRACK W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES W THROUGH SAT THEN TURN MORE WNW BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE/WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 04/0300 UTC FROM 31N78W THROUGH A 1015 MB LOW W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 25N79W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 30N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N46W ALONG 25N58W TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 30N66W TO BEYOND 34N69W A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 25N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-59W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N THROUGH MON. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW