000 AXNT20 KNHC 022357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 02/2100 UTC...CENTERED AT 03/0000 UTC NEAR 13.3N 57.4W OR ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BARBADOS MOVING W AT 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 51W-60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...ANALYZED FROM 14N31W THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 6N34W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 21N83W TO OFF THE WRN COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG JUST S OF DAKAR AND CONTINUING WSW ALONG 11N21W 10N31W 5N37W TO 6N44W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 18W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 40-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AROUND THE BROAD OMEGA UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PUSHING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE BASINS PROVIDING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A IMAGINARY LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N87W TO 25N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WITH THIS IN MIND...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS N OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N OF JAMAICA N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS EXTENDING TO ERN CUBA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE SRN WATERS OF CUBA TONIGHT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 79W-83W...RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N54W TO 22N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N38W AND 32N32W. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICAN N OF DAKAR. THE WRN SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND N-CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA